|
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
|
||
|
|||
1998 STEEP III Progress ReportTITLE: Modern Application of Historic Crop Rotation Data INVESTIGATORS: William Payne, Clinton Reeder, Don Wysocki, Dan Ball, and Dick Smiley PROJECT OBJECTIVES: 1. Use economic analysis of historical data to hypothesize which crop rotations would be most profitable and sustainable in today=s technological and economic setting. 2. Experimentally test modern adaptations of these best rotations for their profitability, yield sustainability, and effects upon soil erosion and organic matter content. 3. Make recommendations, based upon economic and yield assessments, for diversified crop rotations, and for future crop rotation research in the medium to high rainfall zones. KEY WORDS: Rotation, Alternative Crops, no-till STATEMENT OF PROBLEM: New crop rotations are needed in the medium to high rainfall zones that 1) reduce or eliminate fallow, 2) provide alternatives to winter wheat/pea rotations, and 3) maintain profitability without degrading the soil. Crop rotation research, however, is very slow and expensive. A cost-effective alternative is to reassess data from an exhaustive crop rotation experiment that examined thirty-two cropping rotations from 1929 to1953. Despite their age, these data can be used to provide invaluable insights into a diverse and feasible set of crop rotations for the mid- to high rainfall zones of the inland Pacific Northwest. However, data must be interpreted within the context of modern technologies and economic setting. Economic analyses will be used to re-evaluate the most promising cropping rotations. Those which appear to be most profitable and environmentally sound will be tested for three years in three participating growers= fields. Agronomic zone of interest Intermediate to high (approximately 14 to 17 inches) rainfall zones of eastern Oregon
A proto-type economic model has been generated which uses AProgressive Break-even Analysis@ to analyze various crop alternatives for a typical Pacific Northwest wheat farm. It generally follows a standard cash flow format which has been modified to include Afixed@ longer term overhead factors. By looking at the direct cash costs of production and marketing, it will be easier to make some early eliminations of currently considered alternative crops. A no-till drill has been rented and tested on 50 acres in farmers= fields under a wide range of operating conditions. The drill has been designed with sufficient flexibility to conduct a wide range of agronomic studies on-farm. At the Pendleton and Moro research stations, a range of alternative crops have been tested. With the exception of narrow leaf lupin, results have been generally disappointing.
I. Economic Analysis of Historic Data: Wheat yield data of different rotations have been analyzed. The ratio of standard deviation to mean (coefficient of variation) provides an indication of stability of the rotation. These values, presented in Table 1, indicate that winter wheat after fallow was the stablest rotation. The introduction of annual cropping decreased yield and, with the exception of peas, introduced greater risk by decreasing yield stability.
A proto-type economic model has been generated which uses AProgressive Break-even Analysis@ to analyze various crop alternatives for a typical Pacific Northwest wheat farm. The model, which is written in MicroSoft=s Excel, follows a general standard cash flow format which has been modified to move from more direct cash consideration towards the inclusion of Afixed@ longer term overhead factors. The approach is meant to provide the combined benefits of Amarginal analysis@ with a Awhole farm analysis@ to permit the producer and other interested parties to better visualize and understand the nature and extent of the economic side of the rotation and sustainability issue. By looking at the direct cash costs of production and marketing, it will be easier to make some early eliminations in the considered range of potential alternative crops. Alternative crops which do not even cover the cost of directly applied cash purchased production factors will in most cases be eliminated from further consideration, unless there are considerable rotation benefits. The structure of the model will permit a user to test sequences of decisions to analyze risk. For example, at the outset, a user might apply a certain level of expectations concerning rainfall and growing season length, and apply fertilizer or other inputs based on that set of expectations. By manipulating the frequency of external conditions (weather, market, etc.), the user can test the average consequences of certain expectations over a longer time period. This provides an interactive sensitivity analysis of risk. The model will also provide a tool to researchers, inasmuch as it gives agronomists an idea of what level of yield an alternative crop must attain, given current or specified market conditions, before it becomes economically feasible at the farm level. Inputs for the analysis include:
For the purposes of the analysis of historical data, yields used will be those expected on a current basis for the production region, modified using more recent data from a variety of sources, including annual wheat nursery data and long term plot data from Pendleton. II. No-till Experimentation. A 10 ft. JD 1560 no-till drill has been customized by and rented from Tumac Machinery beginning in September 1998. The drill has been set up to be flexible enough to conduct a variety of agronomic experiments on-farm. In particular,
We have thus far planted approximately 50 acres of no-till wheat in farmers= fields to test the drill under a variety of soil, residue, and slope conditions. The drill has also been incorporated into long term experiments on the station, including no-till annually cropped winter and spring cereals, which mirror the conventionally tilled annual recrop experiments started in the 1930's. The drill=s use has also been incorporated into a 35 year old experiment which examines the effects of tillage on a wheat-pea rotation. Essentially, the former Aminimum tillage@ treatment, which tended to yield 6 to 7 bu/acre less than conventionally tilled treatments, was modified to become a no-till treatment. We will begin using the drill next spring in on-farm crop rotation experiments. III. Alternative Crops: This year we tested a number of alternative spring crops for their suitability for dryland conditions similar to those near Pendleton, which receives ~16" annual rainfall, and Moro, which receives ~12" annual rainfall. Crops tested include pigeon pea, two teff varieties, four white lupin varieties, four narrow leaf lupin varieties, four soybean varieties, two sorghum varieties, two corn varieties, pearl millet, and proso millet. In addition to yield, crop water use and dates of flowering were determined. In general, yields ranged from disappointing to disastrous, underscoring the fact that, if any of these crops are to become viable alternative crops for rotation with wheat, further research will be required. For some of the better known alternative crops, such as sorghum and corn, we will use water-use efficiency data from the literature to estimate how close we are to realizing genetically potential values, and how genetics and agronomy might contribute to closing existing gaps for these growing environments. For example, a globally accepted value for water-use efficiency of grain sorghum is 340 lbs acre-1 per inch of water used (corrected for regional atmospheric evaporative demand). Thus, for 16" of water use, one ought to be able to produce 5,440 lbs acre-1 of sorghum, or about 97 bu acre-1. The fact that we achieved less than one third that value at Pendleton demonstrates that we have the wrong combination of genotype and agronomic package (seeding rate and date, fertilizer amount and application, etc., tillage system) for these growing conditions. Until we can approach this level of water-use efficiency, it is doubtful that sorghum will be commercially viable. In an effort to narrow this gap, next spring we will conduct research under different tillage systems and planting dates on 50 sorghum varieties, including many from Nebraska and Texas which have been bred for cold as well as drought tolerance. There does appear to be good agronomic potential for Merrit, the earliest variety of narrow leaf lupin. Yield results for the four narrow leaf lupin varieties are shown in Table 2. We feel optimistic enough about these data to begin on-farm testing next year, and are ordering appropriate amounts of seed from Australia.
INTERACTION WITH OTHER SCIENTISTS CONDUCTING RELATED ACTIVITY Dick Smiley, Dan
Ball and Don Wysocki have collaborated on many aspects of the research. PUBLICATIONS AND PRESENTATIONS Two presentations to be given at the 1999 Northwest Direct Seed Intensive Cropping Conference and Trade Show in Spokane, WA. |
||||
 Contact
us: Hans Kok, (208)885-5971
|
Accessibility | Copyright
| Policies | WebStats | STEEP Acknowledgement |
||||
